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Will I Be Able to Afford More House Next Year Than I Can Right Now?

Adrienne Francis
Sep 20 5 minutes read

When should you buy a home in the current market? There's no doubt this market is confusing, with one expert recommending selling now to get peak value for a home and others saying to wait for the market to correct. If you're buying, your perspective is much different. You want to save money but still have your pick of properties for sale. Confused? That's because this is a challenging market with many things to think about before you buy, especially home affordability.

The Pandemic Housing Boom Is Correcting

Beyond all other factors, when you consider home affordability, you have to focus on the changes brought by the pandemic.  That insanity led to rapidly increasing home prices. The double-digit home price growth of the last few years isn't something the market can sustain and even the stock market makes corrections right?  If you're tired of being outbid for a home you love, now is a better time to buy. There are people waiting on the sidelines which creates opportunity for some.

What Will Home Affordability Look Like in 2023?

If all goes to plan, the increase in interest rates could curb inflation quickly, and a result of that could include some improvements in overall home affordability for those who are looking to buy a home. There’s no way to know what could happen, but here’s what many expect:

  • Interest rates: If you wait until 2023, interest rates on most mortgage loans will likely be higher. That means you may spend more to buy the home when it comes to the loan costs. That doesn’t mean those prices are going to be significantly higher, but it could mean a few percentage points. In this area of NJ we are still seeing price increases.
  • Home inventory: While there’s no way to say you’ll never be outbid again, the chances are lower in the next year as inventory becomes more predictable in most areas. With more inventory available, there are also fewer reasons that home values will skyrocket in those bidding wars. Higher inventory leads to better access to buying what you want. BUT, many move up buyers are waiting for rates to come down, so we don’t expect as much inventory as we would like.
  • Home prices: It’s unlikely there will be a significant housing value drop in the coming year, but home values may stop growing as quickly. There is some evidence of currently listed homes seeing price reductions right now, which could mean lower prices in some areas.

Will You Be Able to Afford More House Next Year, Though?

There’s no crystal ball to tell us the future of what’s to come. If you can afford to buy a home today that fits your needs and is within your budget, buy now. You may be better off buying now instead of waiting for the unpredictable real estate market of 2023. I really believe with so many buyer’s on the sidelines, when rates do come down even a little, a large number of buyer’s will re-enter the market once again, depleting inventory.

More so, inflation is a factor. Though it is unlikely that you will find home prices rising due to inflation, you are likely to find it a bigger pinch on your budget.

With mortgage rates on the rise, there’s no doubt that buying now if you qualify for a lower interest rate is the better option overall. It will save you money to secure even an interest rate that's even a fraction lower this year than next year.

If you can afford to buy a home now and have the financing to do so, there's no real benefit to buying next year. Prices aren't likely to be much lower, though inventory may be a bit better but I’m not so sure. If you're able to find your dream home, it may be time to make your move now instead of waiting.

Get the Help You Need

If you’re frustrated with the lack of access to homes for sale, let's talk.  There is some improvement with new listings, which could give you the perfect opportunity to buy what you want at lower interest rates for the foreseeable future.

Compass also has a number of off-market homes that are always coming to market. Perhaps one will fit your bill?

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